澳大利亚反对党联盟提议将烟草消费税削减80%，声称此举能减少非法交易1。然而，国际比较分析表明，这一主张缺乏依据。2017年至2025年间，澳大利亚尼古丁消费量增加近40%，同期合法产品价格上涨三倍1，反映出高税率与消费增长并存的现象。
英国的案例更具说服力。在2005-06至2024-25年间，英国非法烟草产品占比从16.9%降至12%1，同时该国继续上调烟草税至约47.2便士每支（约88美分）1。相比之下，加拿大1994年削减烟草消费税的政策产生了反面教训，据估计导致30,000至40,000人死亡，且非法贸易最终在2000年代再次增加1。
有效遏制非法烟草贸易的关键在于完善的管理体系而非单纯降低税率。世界银行2019年审查发现，税收管理体系比税率本身更重要1。英国通过实施综合非法烟草战略取得成效，包括追踪溯源系统、税收标记和烟盒上的隐形安全特征1。此外，高烟草税被世界银行和世界卫生组织认可为最具成本效益的控烟措施1。
Australia's opposition coalition has proposed cutting the tobacco excise tax by 80%, claiming the reduction would decrease illegal trading activity.1 However, international experience suggests this approach is flawed, as effective tax administration systems and supply chain tracking prove far more effective at combating illicit tobacco commerce than simply lowering tax rates.1
Evidence from comparable countries demonstrates that high tobacco taxation, when properly managed, successfully reduces illegal trade without requiring tax cuts. The United Kingdom maintained rising tobacco taxes while reducing the share of illegal tobacco products from 16.9% to 12% between 2005-06 and 2024-25, with its current tax rate at approximately 47.2 pence per cigarette (about 88 cents).1 By contrast, Australia's current excise stands at A$1.55 per cigarette.1 Canada's experience illustrates the dangers of the proposed approach: when the country cut tobacco excise in 1994, the move led to an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 additional deaths, and illegal trade ultimately resurged again in the 2000s.1
International research confirms that tax administration systems matter more than tax rates themselves in controlling illicit markets. A 2019 World Bank review found that the effectiveness of tax collection mechanisms outweighs the impact of the rate level.1 The United Kingdom's comprehensive strategy against illegal tobacco includes track-and-trace systems, tax stamps, and invisible security features on packaging.1 Meanwhile, Australia has witnessed nicotine consumption increase by nearly 40% between 2017 and 2025, even as prices for legal products have tripled.1
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