碳捕获与存储（CCS）技术已被证明在技术层面可行，但将其扩大到全球气候目标所需规模面临巨大挑战。联合国气候科学机构估计，本世纪需要储存350至1200亿吨二氧化碳以避免气候变化最严重的后果1。然而，当前全球仅有77个运营项目，年捕获能力仅为6400万吨1，与国际能源署预测的2050年年需捕获76亿吨目标相差119倍1。
现有碳捕获能力存在多方面制约。欧洲最大项目位于肥料巨头Yara公司的工厂，年捕获能力为80万吨二氧化碳1。按此规模计算，要达到联合国下限目标需要同时运营5800个类似项目1。更令人担忧的是，2023年全球80%的碳捕获产能被用于强化石油采收，这实际上反而增加了排放1。此外，碳存储容量的估计也遭到严重修正，从之前预估的10000至40000亿吨下调至约1460亿吨1。
专家指出，实现规模化部署的主要障碍在于缺乏政策支持和商业可行性。德州大学地球科学家苏珊·霍沃卡表示，"技术上已准备好，我们知道如何做这个过程"1。但宾州大学经济学家丹尼·卡伦沃德指出，"所需规模在现实中天文数字般遥远"1。
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has proven technically viable, yet the path to global deployment remains fraught with obstacles. The United Nations climate science body estimates that between 350 billion and 1.2 trillion tons of CO2 must be stored this century to prevent the most severe consequences of climate change.1 However, current global capacity falls dramatically short of this target. Worldwide, only 77 operational CCS projects are currently in service, collectively capturing 64 million tons of CO2 annually.1 This figure pales against the International Energy Agency's projection that 7.6 billion tons must be captured yearly by 2050.1 Bridging this gap would require scaling operations 119 times larger than present levels.1
The disparity reflects fundamental challenges beyond technical feasibility. According to research, carbon storage capacity estimates have been substantially revised downward, from an earlier projection of 10,000 to 40,000 billion tons to approximately 1,460 billion tons.1 Europe's largest CCS facility, operated by fertilizer company Yara, captures 800,000 tons of CO2 annually.1 Roughly 5,800 projects of equivalent scale would need to operate simultaneously to meet the United Nations' lower-bound target.1 A further complication: in 2023, approximately 80 percent of global CCS capacity was deployed for enhanced oil recovery, which paradoxically increases emissions.1
While geoscientist Susan Hovorka of the University of Texas stated that "the technology is ready from a technical standpoint, we know how to do this process,"1 economist Danny Cullenward of Pennsylvania State University countered that "the required scale is astronomically distant from reality."1 Policy support and commercial viability, rather than technological obstacles, emerge as the primary barriers to widespread adoption.
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