在9·11纪念日之际,评论指出阿富汗民主制度的崩溃并非历史必然,而是源于美国政策的一系列失误。12001年后的20年间,阿富汗曾取得显著进展,近70%的人口开始使用电视获取新闻,人均收入增加,女性教育也得到扩展。1然而,这一民主化进程因多重因素而遭到破坏。
美国政府在多个关键节点未能坚守承诺。12003年美国入侵伊拉克后,对阿富汗的关注大幅下降,巴基斯坦借机恢复对塔利班的支持。1特别是在2018年特朗普政府时期,美国开始与塔利班进行"和平谈判",但这一过程中排除了阿富汗政府本身。12020年2月29日,美国特使扎尔迈·哈利勒扎德在多哈签署协议,标志着美国对该国的政策发生重大转变。1
随后,2021年8月阿富汗共和国崩溃,塔利班重新掌权。1如今塔利班已建立起极权统治秩序,包括实施性别隔离政策,并建立起庞大的宗教学校网络——目前有超过365万名学生就读于伊斯兰经学院。1根据2021年亚洲基金会的民调,88%的受访者对塔利班"完全没有同情",反映出阿富汗民众对现状的广泛不满。1美国将阿富汗列为"主要非北约盟国"的身份最终被证明毫无意义。1
The collapse of Afghanistan's democratic experiment was not inevitable, but rather the result of broken American commitments and policy failures, according to analysis marking the 9/11 anniversary.1 Over the two decades following 2001, significant progress had been made: nearly 70% of Afghanistan's population relied on television for news, per capita income increased, and female education expanded substantially.1 Yet these gains were undermined by a series of strategic missteps by the United States.
American attention to Afghanistan was diverted in 2003 when the United States invaded Iraq, allowing Pakistan to resume support for the Taliban.1 Further damage came when the Trump administration initiated "peace negotiations" with the Taliban in 2018, deliberately excluding the Afghan government from talks.1 On February 29, 2020, U.S. Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad signed an accord in Doha that set the stage for withdrawal.1 The hasty American exit that followed in August 2021 led to the rapid collapse of the Afghan Republic and the Taliban's return to power.1
Since taking control, the Taliban has established authoritarian rule characterized by gender segregation policies and an expanding network of religious schools.1 Over 3.65 million students now attend Taliban-run Islamic seminaries, reflecting the group's ideological consolidation of education.1 The designation of Afghanistan as a "major non-NATO ally" by the United States ultimately proved meaningless.1 A 2021 Asia Foundation poll revealed that 88% of respondents had "no sympathy at all" for the Taliban, underscoring the disconnect between the movement's rule and Afghan public sentiment.1
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