2026年上半年，工商银行、农业银行、建设银行、中国银行四大行出现了一个显著变化：金融投资增速普遍高于贷款增速1。具体而言，四大行贷款合计增长约5.5%，金融投资增长约9.3%，两者相差近4个百分点1。从增量规模看，四大银行上半年新增贷款约6万亿元，新增金融投资约5.2万亿元1。其中工行成为唯一一家金融投资增量超过贷款增量的银行，而农行两项增量已较为接近1。以农行为例，新增本外币贷款1.69万亿元，新增债券投资1.52万亿元1。
这一趋势并非短期波动。2025年，四大银行金融投资合计增加约8.7万亿元，首次高于约8.15万亿元的新增贷款1。四大银行新增金融投资主要流向债市，其中政府债和政策性银行债占绝对大头1。截至2026年6月末，商业银行持有地方政府债券41.1万亿元，占地方政府债券投资者持有规模七成以上1。农行债券投资余额超过17万亿元，与贷款余额之比超过六成1。
银行配置结构的调整反映了多方面变化。2026年上半年，政府债券净融资达6.4万亿元，占社融增量的30.9%1。财政扩张增加了债券供给，企业融资渠道多元化，经济结构变化也降低了对传统银行贷款的依赖1。中国人民银行行长潘功胜指出，贷款"降速提质"可能成为宏观运行的新常态之一1。有效信贷需求不足已成为行业普遍压力1。
China's four largest banks—Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China—are increasingly shifting toward financial investments, with bond purchases now outpacing traditional lending.1 In the first half of 2026, the Big Four's financial investment growth reached approximately 9.3 percent, nearly four percentage points higher than their combined loan growth of roughly 5.5 percent.1 The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China stands as the only institution where new financial investment exceeded new loan volume, while the Agricultural Bank of China's two figures have grown increasingly similar.1
The magnitude of this shift is substantial. The four banks collectively added approximately 5.2 trillion yuan in financial investments and approximately 6 trillion yuan in new loans during the first six months of 2026.1 The Agricultural Bank of China exemplifies this trend, recording 1.69 trillion yuan in new loans while investing 1.52 trillion yuan in bonds.1 This reallocation reflects broader economic pressures, including fiscal expansion that has increased government bond supply, diversification of corporate financing channels, and structural economic changes that have reduced reliance on traditional bank credit.1 By June 2026, commercial banks held 41.1 trillion yuan in local government bonds, representing over seventy percent of such securities held by all investors.1
Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, characterized this pattern as potentially becoming "a new normal in macroeconomic operations," describing it as loan growth that emphasizes quality over speed.1 The shift underscores persistent challenges in credit demand, with insufficient effective lending demand emerging as an industry-wide concern.1
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