研究表明，气候变化导致的农业生产力下降与粮食不安全问题相互交织，可能成为未来冲突的诱因。1 到未来25年，全球近一半人口可能居住在农产量低于30年前的地区。1 气候驱动的农业生产力变化会改变土地价值，引发资源竞争，尤其是在非民主国家中更容易导致暴力冲突。1
受农业损失影响最严重的国家包括柬埔寨、孟加拉国、布隆迪、尼日利亚、巴拉圭和萨尔瓦多。1 南亚地区面临最大风险，该地区人口约20亿，高度依赖进口小麦、玉米和棕榈油，进口来源包括俄罗斯、乌克兰、加拿大和马来西亚。1 该地区的水资源脆弱性和对全球粮食市场的依赖加剧了这一风险。1
研究者穆勒指出："如果我们知道你的土地将变得更有生产力，也许我今天就想从你那里夺走它。这正是谈判破裂和暴力发生的地方。"1 民主制度中的机构能够促进竞争利益方进行谈判而非直接冲突，可以降低暴力风险。1
Research indicates that climate-driven shifts in agricultural productivity could fundamentally reshape global stability, with particular implications for vulnerable regions. 1 Within the next 25 years, nearly half of the world's population may live in areas where crop yields fall below levels seen three decades earlier. 1 As climate change reduces agricultural output globally, especially in tropical zones, the resulting competition for land and resources threatens to intensify tensions, particularly in non-democratic nations where institutional safeguards are weaker. 1
The mechanisms linking environmental stress to conflict are direct: when climate change alters land productivity, it transforms the strategic value of territory and sparks competition over dwindling resources. 1 Researcher Müller explained this dynamic, stating: "If we know your land will become more productive, maybe I want to take it from you today. This is exactly where negotiations break down and violence occurs." 1 Countries including Cambodia, Bangladesh, Burundi, Nigeria, Paraguay, and El Salvador face the severest agricultural losses and corresponding vulnerability. 1 South Asia emerges as a particular flashpoint, with a population of approximately 2 billion heavily dependent on imported wheat, corn, and palm oil sourced from Russia, Ukraine, Canada, and Malaysia. 1
The relationship between institutional quality and conflict risk is significant, however. 1 Democratic systems possess institutions capable of facilitating negotiation among competing interests, thereby reducing the likelihood of violence compared to authoritarian structures. 1
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