航空业面临气候变化威胁 乘客或需接受更多延误

气候变暖正在给全球航空业带来前所未有的挑战。2024年6月，伦敦希思罗和盖特威克机场因强雷暴天胁导致约900班飞机延误，部分延误长达11小时，数十班飞机被取消1。这一事件充分展现了极端天气对航空运输系统的严重冲击。

从大气物理学角度看，问题正在加剧。地球每升温1°C，大气可容纳的水分增加约7%，从而增加强降雨的可能性1。英国气象局指出："虽然雷暴总数可能不会增加，但我们经历的雷暴可能更具破坏性"1。除了雷暴外，北大西洋上空的晴空颠簸自1979年以来增加了55%1，这种无先兆的气流颠簸难以预测和规避。海平面上升也构成长期威胁，全球269个机场因此面临洪水风险1。2012年飓风桑迪就曾导致纽约拉瓜迪亚机场跑道被淹数日，而原本500年一遇的洪水现已约每25年发生一次1。应对这些风险的防洪措施可能耗资高达570亿美元（420亿英镑）1。

航空业面临的压力被进一步复杂化。该行业需要在2050年前实现碳中性，同时预计全球飞机数量在未来20年内翻倍1。虽然新技术可能部分缓解这些风险，但乘客最终需要接受更多延误和不便。

Climate change is intensifying threats to aviation operations through more severe weather patterns and rising sea levels, forcing the industry and passengers alike to prepare for increased disruptions. In June 2024, thunderstorms at London's Heathrow and Gatwick airports delayed approximately 900 flights, with some experiencing disruptions lasting up to 11 hours and dozens cancelled altogether 1. The Met Office has warned that while the total number of thunderstorms may not increase, those that do occur are likely to become more destructive 1. This trend reflects a broader atmospheric pattern: as global temperatures rise by 1°C, the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases by approximately 7 percent, amplifying the likelihood of intense rainfall 1.

Beyond thunderstorms, aviation faces mounting challenges from other climate-related phenomena. Clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic has increased 55 percent since 1979 1, subjecting aircraft and passengers to sudden, unpredictable jolts outside visible cloud formations. Rising sea levels present an equally serious threat, with 269 airports worldwide now vulnerable to flooding, a number projected to grow 1. A 2012 case study illustrates the stakes: Hurricane Sandy flooded New York's LaGuardia Airport runways for days, transforming what was once a 500-year flood event into an occurrence now expected approximately every 25 years 1. Addressing these sea-level threats through flood defences could cost as much as $57 billion (£42 billion), according to Newcastle University research 1.

The aviation industry faces a dual squeeze: it must achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 while global aircraft numbers are expected to double within the next two decades 1. Experts suggest new technologies may partially mitigate these climate risks, yet passengers and operators should prepare for a new normal marked by frequent delays and service interruptions 1.