联合国环境规划署近日发布报告，承认全球气温将在未来数年内突破1.5摄氏度的安全限值，这标志着对2015年巴黎气候协议既定目标的重大退缩。1报告指出，全球当前温度已达1.4摄氏度，距离这一临界阈值仅有一步之遥。1根据最乐观的情景预测，升温将在本世纪中期达到1.8摄氏度；若按照现有政策继续推进，升温幅度则将攀升至2.6摄氏度。1联合国秘书长古特雷斯表示，"人类正在加速超越气候灾难的限界"。1
面对这一严峻局面，报告提出了新的应对策略：首先限制升温幅度，随后通过停止化石燃料使用和采用碳去除技术将温度降回安全水平。1UNEP执行主任安德森指出，"1.5目标仍然是目标，但现在我们需要从上方不同地方接近它"。1报告警告，排放延迟减少每推迟5年将增加至少0.1摄氏度的峰值升温。1传统树木种植等措施最多可降低0.1摄氏度，这意味着需要开发新型碳去除技术才能实现目标。1
报告同时指出存在不可逆的"临界点"风险，包括西南极冰盖丧失、亚马孙雨林消失和大西洋环流系统关闭。1即便按照最优预案，未来数十年内仍将面临更多极端天气事件、海平面上升和物种灭绝等灾难。1
The United Nations Environment Programme has released a report acknowledging that global temperatures will breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius safety limit within coming years, marking a significant retreat from the goals established in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.1 The current global temperature has already reached 1.4 degrees Celsius, placing the world dangerously close to exceeding this critical threshold.1 Under the most optimistic scenarios, warming will reach 1.8 degrees Celsius by mid-century, while projections based on existing national policies indicate temperatures could climb to 2.6 degrees Celsius.1
In response to this trajectory, the UN report proposes a revised strategy: first limiting the extent of warming, then implementing measures to reduce temperatures back to safe levels through the cessation of fossil fuel use and carbon removal technologies.1 UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that "humanity is accelerating past the climate disaster boundary," emphasizing the urgency of the situation.1 Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, acknowledged that "the 1.5 target remains a target, but now we need to approach it from a different place from above."1 The report warns that every five-year delay in reducing emissions will add at least 0.1 degrees Celsius to peak warming.1
The implementation of such measures would require developing advanced carbon removal technologies beyond traditional tree planting, which can reduce temperatures by at most 0.1 degrees Celsius.1 The report also cautions of irreversible "tipping points," including the potential loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet, the disappearance of the Amazon rainforest, and the shutdown of Atlantic circulation systems—all of which would trigger decades of intensified extreme weather, rising sea levels, and mass species extinction.1
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