世界气象组织宣布厄尔尼诺现象将持续至2月，概率达"近100%"，这是该组织首次作出如此明确的表述1。该组织预计厄尔尼诺强度在年末将达到"非常高的水平"，可能创造历史新高，其影响预计延续至2027年1。联合国秘书长古特雷斯指出，厄尔尼诺被气候变化"放大"，警告"地球进入未知水域，水温在升高"1。
这一气象现象已在全球范围内引发严重后果。印度尼西亚在7月烧毁近95000公顷森林，专家警告今年可能烧毁1100万公顷1。马来西亚砂拉越州库琼市空气污染指数达407，超过300被列为危险水平1。中美洲干旱走廊地区超过70000个玉米种植户报告作物严重受损1，世界粮食计划署预警该地区及加勒比地区超1600万人可能受粮食不安全影响，相关增幅达81%1。秘鲁对三分之一城市宣布紧急状态1。
南亚地区同样面临严峻局势。斯里兰卡部分农业区的降水比长期平均值低85%-100%，数百个水箱水位仅约10%1。巴拿马运河因干旱从周五起限制通行船只数量以保护水资源，这是其历史上仅第二次实施此措施1。由于全球贸易的5%通过巴拿马运河，该限制措施将对全球贸易产生广泛影响1。
The World Meteorological Organization has announced that El Niño will persist through February with near-100 percent certainty, marking the first time the organization has issued such a definitive forecast 1. The phenomenon is projected to reach "very high intensity" by year's end, potentially setting historical records, with impacts expected to extend into 2027 1. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has stated that El Niño is being amplified by climate change, with the Earth entering "uncharted territory" as ocean temperatures rise 1.
The impacts are already visible across multiple regions. Indonesia experienced widespread wildfires in July that destroyed nearly 95,000 hectares of forest, with experts warning the country could lose 11 million hectares this year 1. Air pollution has reached hazardous levels in parts of Malaysia, with Kuching in Sarawak recording an air quality index of 407, far exceeding the dangerous threshold of 300 1. The Central American drought corridor has affected over 70,000 maize farmers reporting crop losses, while Peru has declared a state of emergency in one-third of its cities 1. Sri Lanka's agricultural regions have experienced rainfall reductions of 85 to 100 percent below long-term averages, leaving hundreds of water tanks at approximately 10 percent capacity 1.
The crisis is affecting global trade and food security on an unprecedented scale. The Panama Canal, through which 5 percent of global commerce passes, has begun restricting vessel transit to protect water resources—only the second time in its history it has implemented such measures 1. The World Food Programme has warned that over 16 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean face potential food insecurity, with the region experiencing an 81 percent increase in food insecurity levels 1.
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