随着全球气温上升轨迹偏离预期,世界将错过1.5℃的变暖目标,正朝向1.8℃方向发展1。在这一背景下,一项长期被气候政策制定者回避的技术——太阳辐射调节(SRM)——正引发重新审视的呼声。
太阳辐射调节技术主要包括平流层气溶胶注射、太空镜和云增白等方法1。支持者认为这些干预手段可能帮助降低全球气温,但该技术存在重大风险。一旦停止实施会导致"终止冲击",引发急剧升温;同时SRM无法减少碳排放,生态影响也仍不确定1。
国际层面对SRM的态度分歧明显。2024年联合国环境大会未能就SRM研究监管达成共识,各国立场不一:日本和沙特阿拉伯支持推进研究,而太平洋和非洲的易受伤害国家则表示反对1。美国政治圈也存在矛盾立场——既有共和党人认为SRM已在进行中(官方已将其定为非法),也有将SRM视为"美国天气主权"防御手段的倡导者1。与此同时,埃隆·马斯克等私人行动者支持SRM研究,美以合资公司Stardust等在缺乏公众监督的情况下进行相关工作1。
澳大利亚目前尚无专项SRM政策,但联邦政府已支持涉及海洋云增白的大堡礁研究项目(RRAP)1。有声音呼吁打破对SRM研究的禁忌,认为应允许负责任的科学研究和公众讨论,同时建议澳大利亚制定相关政策并参与国际对话1。
The world is set to miss the 1.5°C global warming target and is heading toward 1.8°C of heating 1, prompting renewed discussion of solar radiation management (SRM)—a controversial climate intervention technology that remains largely taboo in policy circles 1. SRM techniques, which include stratospheric aerosol injection, space mirrors, and cloud brightening 1, could theoretically lower global temperatures, but the approach carries significant drawbacks that have made it politically contentious.
The fundamental challenge with SRM is that it does nothing to reduce carbon emissions, and it carries the risk of what researchers call "termination shock"—a rapid temperature spike if the technology is halted 1. The international community has yet to establish clear governance frameworks for such interventions. At the 2024 UN Environment Assembly, no consensus was reached on regulating SRM research 1, leaving a policy vacuum as various nations take divergent positions. Japan and Saudi Arabia support research into the technology, while vulnerable island nations in the Pacific and African countries oppose it 1.
Within the United States, political divisions run deep on the issue. Some Republicans deny climate change while believing SRM is already being deployed illegally, whereas other proponents view SRM as a matter of "American weather sovereignty" 1. Meanwhile, private actors including Elon Musk back solar radiation management research 1, and ventures like the Israeli-American company Stardust are conducting studies with limited public oversight 1. Australia currently has no dedicated SRM policy, though the federal government does support marine cloud brightening research for the Great Barrier Reef 1, underscoring the need for comprehensive national and international policy frameworks to govern this emerging technological frontier.
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