美伊局势恶化引发的全球能源危机正在推高澳大利亚央行加息的可能性。布伦特原油基准价格在过去两周内上升23%，接近每桶90美元 [1]，国际油价甚至于近日突破每桶100美元，创两个月新高 [2]。在这一背景下，澳大利亚储备银行加息的可能性翻倍 [1]。
中东局势的恶化成为油价飙升的主要驱动力。美伊之间的停火协议已经完全破裂 [1]。分析人士指出，市场正在担忧也门胡塞武装可能在红海阻断沙特石油出口，以及美伊紧张局势加剧可能导致霍尔木兹海峡油流受阻 [2]。这些风险因素共同推高了国际能源价格。
油价上升可能进一步拖累澳大利亚经济增长 [1]。
Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran are pushing global energy markets into crisis, with crude oil prices surging dramatically and prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia to reassess its monetary policy stance.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, has risen 23% over the past two weeks and approached $90 per barrel [1]. Oil prices breached $100 per barrel on Thursday for the first time in two months, climbing from $95 the previous day [2]. This surge reflects market concerns that Houthi forces in Yemen may block Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea and that escalating US-Iran tensions could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz [2].
The complete collapse of any ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran [1] has intensified these supply risks. In response to the inflationary pressure from rising fuel costs, the Reserve Bank of Australia has doubled its probability of raising interest rates [1], a move that could further weigh on economic growth in Australia [1].