农业对化石燃料的依赖正付出代价

伊朗冲突引发的天然气价格飙升已波及全球化肥市场。14月尿素价格攀升至850美元/吨以上，较冲突前上升80%，创2022年以来最高水平。1由于约三分之一的全球海运化肥贸易经由霍尔木兹海峡，该海峡事实上已因冲突关闭，导致全球化肥供应受阻。1中东31家氨厂受影响或关闭，加上近年俄罗斯20家氨厂受损，进一步加剧了产能短缺。1根据CoBank的报告，部分化肥价格可能至少保持高位至2028年。1

面对这一困境，一些公司正在开发替代方案以减轻农业对化石燃料的依赖。1Pivot Bio和Switch Bioworks等企业正利用微生物技术开发替代肥料。1Pivot Bio表示其产品目前成本与化学肥料具有竞争力，可替代约25%的合成肥料，目标是达到40%-50%的替代率。1考虑到化肥生产占全球温室气体排放的约2%，推动这类替代方案具有重要的环保意义。1

Fertilizer prices have surged dramatically due to disruptions in natural gas supply triggered by regional conflict. In April, urea prices climbed above $850 per ton, representing an 80 percent increase from pre-conflict levels and marking the highest point since 2022.1 The price shock stems from broader supply chain disruptions: approximately one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by the conflict.1 This disruption has cascading consequences across major producing regions, with 31 ammonia plants in the Middle East and an additional 20 facilities in Russia either damaged or shut down in recent years.1

The crisis underscores agriculture's substantial dependence on fossil fuels, with fertilizer production alone accounting for roughly 2 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.1 Industry forecasts suggest that elevated fertilizer prices may persist through at least 2028.1 In response, biotechnology companies are developing alternatives to reduce this reliance. Pivot Bio has introduced a microbial-based fertilizer product that is now cost-competitive with chemical fertilizers and can replace approximately 25 percent of synthetic fertilizer applications, with the company targeting a replacement rate of 40 to 50 percent in the future.1 Switch Bioworks is among other firms pursuing similar microbial-based solutions to address the sector's energy vulnerabilities.1