联合国最新报告预测，全球将在2030年前超过1.5摄氏度的关键气候目标1。截至2026年，世界已比前工业化时期温暖1.4摄氏度1。帕劳总统苏朗格尔·威普斯对此表示："对在第一线生活的我们来说，很难言过其实地表达情感"1。
尽管前景严峻，专家指出通过加强全球行动仍可能改变轨迹1。如果各国加倍努力淘汰化石燃料并减少其他排放源，可将峰值升温限制在1.8摄氏度1。2015年《巴黎协议》已避免相当于1摄氏度的变暖，使世界偏离3.6摄氏度升温轨道转向2.6摄氏度1。包括太阳能和电动车在内的清洁能源技术进展表明，快速减排仍能产生实际效果1。
澳大利亚将在11月主导COP31气候谈判，寻求保持1.5摄氏度目标的路径1。
A United Nations report predicts that the world will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius climate target before 2030, with global temperatures already reaching 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels as of 2026.1 However, experts suggest that rapid emission reductions could still prevent temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, offering a path forward despite the mounting challenge.1
The breach of this critical threshold carries profound implications for vulnerable nations. Palau's President Surangel Whipps stated that "for those of us living on the front lines, it is hard to overstate the emotional weight," underscoring the urgency felt by Pacific island states threatened by climate change.1 Progress in clean energy technologies, including solar power and electric vehicles, demonstrates that meaningful action produces measurable results.1 If countries double their efforts to phase out fossil fuels and reduce other emission sources, the peak temperature rise could be limited to 1.8 degrees Celsius.1
The Paris Agreement, established in 2015 with the collective goal of restricting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, has already prevented approximately 1 degree of warming by redirecting the world from a 3.6-degree trajectory to a 2.6-degree pathway.1 Australia will lead COP31 climate negotiations in November to seek a pathway for maintaining the 1.5-degree target.1
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