澳大利亚房地产市场陷入下行轨道。房价自2026年3月峰值以来已下跌3.6%，其中2026年8月环比下跌0.9%，季度内跌幅达3.1%1。首府城市郊区的困境更为明显，93%的郊区正经历价格下跌，相比2026年秋季的45.8%大幅恶化1。
金融机构对房市前景的判断趋向悲观。Commonwealth Bank预计全国房价将进一步下跌约9%，其中悉尼下跌13%，墨尔本下跌12%1。AMP首席经济学家Shane Oliver预期澳大利亚房价下跌约10%1，而独立房产经济学家Cameron Kusher认为跌幅将达8-11%共识范围的高端1。一些经济学家称这可能是50年来最严重的房市衰退1。
在此背景下，澳洲储备银行继续维持紧缩政策。现金利率已上调三次至4.35%，预计2026年末前还将加息一次1。房价下跌与联邦政府移除部分房产投资者税收优惠同步发生1。尽管当前形势严峻，澳大利亚房价自1999年以来仍累计上涨超400%1。
Australian house prices have declined 3.6% from their March 2026 peak, with major financial institutions now forecasting steeper falls ahead.1 In August 2026 alone, prices dropped 0.9% month-on-month and 3.1% over the quarter.1 The downturn has become widespread, with 93% of capital city suburbs experiencing price declines—a dramatic shift from the 45.8% recorded in autumn 2026.1
Leading banks have substantially raised their downside expectations for the national market. Commonwealth Bank projects a 9% national price decline, with Sydney and Melbourne facing drops of 13% and 12% respectively.1 AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver anticipates an overall 10% decline, while independent property economist Cameron Kusher expects falls toward the higher end of the 8–11% consensus range.1 Some analysts have characterized this as potentially the most severe housing downturn in fifty years.1 The Reserve Bank of Australia has lifted its cash rate three times to the current 4.35% and is expected to raise rates one more time before the end of 2026.1
The deterioration accelerated following March 2026, when the federal government removed certain tax concessions for property investors.1 Despite the current contraction, Australian house prices have surged more than 400% in median value since 1999.1
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