澳大利亚经济增长放缓 消费转向电动汽车购买

澳大利亚统计局公布的最新国民账户数据显示，经济增速正在回落1。截至6月季度，经济增长率从3月季度的2.5%下滑至2.1%，单季实际GDP仅增长0.4%1。

在消费支出上，澳大利亚消费者的购买行为发生了明显转变。电动汽车和混合动力车购买占本季度消费增长的四分之三，三个月内车辆购买总体增长了10%1。受中东冲突影响，国际旅游需求下降。澳大利亚统计局国民账户负责人格蕾丝·金表示，这是"自新冠疫情以来，前往北半球度假的澳大利亚人数首次下降"1。

经济增长面临结构性问题。本季度可支配家庭收入扣除通胀后增长0.6%，但调整人口因素后仅为0.3%1。人均GDP三个月内下降0.1%，年度增长仅0.7%，表明经济增长完全由人口增长驱动，而非生产率提升1。劳动生产率在6月季度保持持平，年度下降0.2%，自2018年以来平均增长率仅为0.1%1。家庭储蓄率则从6.4%上升至6.5%1。

财政部长吉姆·查尔默斯评价这是"在充满挑战的国际环境中取得稳健成果"1。不过经济学家普遍预测澳大利亚经济将继续放缓，2026年底增速预计为1.3%-1.5%1。

Australia's economy expanded at a slower pace in the June quarter, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics reporting real GDP growth of 0.4 percent for the three-month period, down from 2.5 percent in the March quarter to an annualized rate of 2.1 percent.1 The slowdown reflects broader economic challenges, with per capita GDP actually declining 0.1 percent over the quarter, even as household disposable income grew 0.6 percent after adjusting for inflation.1 Labour productivity remained flat during the June quarter and fell 0.2 percent over the year, part of a troubling trend in which average productivity growth has averaged just 0.1 percent annually since 2018.1

Consumer behavior has undergone a notable shift, with vehicle purchases surging 10 percent in three months as Australians increasingly opt for electric and hybrid vehicles, which now account for three-quarters of quarterly consumption growth.1 The ABS National Accounts director Grace King noted that "the number of Australians holidaying in the northern hemisphere has fallen for the first time since the COVID pandemic," a decline attributed to Middle East tensions affecting international tourism.1 Household savings rates edged upward to 6.5 percent from 6.4 percent.1

Economists anticipate further deceleration, with growth projected to slow to between 1.3 and 1.5 percent by the end of 2026.1 Treasurer Jim Chalmers characterized the results as "solid outcomes in a challenging international environment," though the figures underscore persistent productivity challenges undermining living standards as economic expansion remains driven primarily by population growth rather than improved output per capita.1