联合国环境规划署发布的最新报告承认，全球升温将在未来几年内突破《巴黎协议》确立的1.5℃安全阈值12。报告指出，全球目前已较工业革命前水平升温1.4℃1，即使各国采取最雄心勃勃的气候目标，温度也将在本世纪中叶升至1.8℃12。若按照各国当前政策继续推进，到2100年温度将升至2.6℃14。联合国秘书长古特雷斯警告称，"人类正在加速通过气候灾难的安全线"1。
报告虽然指出突破1.5℃目标已不可避免2，但提出了一条应对之路：通过限制峰值温度，然后借助停止化石燃料使用和碳捕获技术将温度降回1.5℃以下1。然而，这一方案意味着数十年内将伴随极端天气灾害、海平面上升和生态系统崩溃1。报告强调，每延迟5年减排至少会增加0.1℃的峰值升温1。科学家表示可通过深度、快速减排和碳吸收实现气候目标2，但种植树木最多只能降低全球温度0.1℃，需要开发更新型的碳捕获技术1。
在报告发布的太平洋岛国论坛上，瓦努阿图气候部长拉尔夫·雷根瓦努敦促澳大利亚停止扩大化石燃料开采和出口，声称"澳大利亚是主要化石燃料生产国"4。澳大利亚总理阿尔巴内塞则辩称"澳大利亚在气候变化方面备受推崇，太平洋领导人尊重我们的立场"4。澳大利亚气候变化部长克里斯·鲍恩承认1.5℃目标现已无法实现4。12个月平均温度在2023年2月至2024年1月期间首次超过1.5℃4。
The United Nations Environment Programme has released a report acknowledging that global warming will surpass the 1.5°C safety limit set by the Paris Agreement within the coming years.123 The planet has already warmed approximately 1.4°C relative to pre-industrial levels.13 Under the most optimistic scenario, if countries pursue ambitious climate targets, temperatures are projected to reach 1.8°C by mid-century.12 However, if nations continue their current climate policies, global temperatures could rise to 2.6°C by the end of this century.14
The report outlines a potential pathway to reverse course, proposing that nations limit peak warming and then reduce temperatures back below 1.5°C through eliminating fossil fuel use and deploying carbon capture technologies.1 Scientists note that deep and rapid emissions reductions combined with carbon removal could theoretically achieve this outcome.2 However, UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that "humanity is accelerating through the climate disaster safety line."1 Each five-year delay in emissions cuts will increase peak warming by at least 0.1°C.1 Planting trees alone can lower global temperatures by a maximum of only 0.1°C, requiring development of more advanced carbon capture technologies.1
The report warns that overshooting 1.5°C will mean decades of extreme weather disasters, rising sea levels, and ecosystem collapse.1 The breakthrough of the 1.5°C target is now "inevitable," with one 12-month period—from February 2023 to January 2024—already experiencing temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.24 Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen acknowledged that the 1.5°C goal is now unachievable.4
At the Pacific Islands Forum, Vanuatu's Climate Minister Ralph Regenvanu called on Australia to cease expanding fossil fuel extraction and exports, stating "Australia is not doing enough. Australia is a major fossil fuel producer."4 Prime Minister Anthony Albanese countered that "Australia is held in high regard on climate change" and that Pacific leaders respect Australia's position.4
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