中国央行、住建部等部门于8月27日至28日发布房地产市场新政，标志着预售制度的重大改革1。新政要求预售屋必须等到房屋单体主体结构封顶后才能进行预售，同时购房者的首付款和房贷需存入监管账户，仅在项目竣工验收后才能发放给开发商1。此外，个人住房贷款最长期限由30年延长至40年，新出让土地优先以现房销售1。
这一改革对开发商而言形成双刃剑效应1。短期内，资金回笼周期大幅延长，根据广东省房地产行业协会会长王韶的说法，传统预售模式下资金回笼周期仅需6到12个月，而现房销售模式下周期将拉长至2至3年1。这意味着开发商面临严峻的现金流压力。然而从长期看，新政通过延迟资金风险、防止烂尾楼问题，有助于提振购房者信心、刺激销售并稳定房价1。目前开发商资金结构中预售占比已相当可观，今年1至7月开发商到位资金总额为人民币4.57兆元，其中定金、预收款与房贷合计2.04兆元，占比达44.6%1。
China's central bank and housing ministry unveiled a comprehensive housing market reform on August 27-28 that fundamentally restructures the pre-sale system, requiring developers to wait until structural completion before selling units and holding buyer deposits in escrow accounts until project handover 1. Under the new framework, homebuyers' down payments and mortgage funds must be deposited into regulated accounts and released to developers only after project completion and inspection 1. Additionally, pre-sale of properties is now prohibited until the main structural framework of individual buildings reaches the roof level 1.
The reform presents a dual challenge for developers. While the policy extends the capital recovery cycle from the traditional 6-12 months under the pre-sale model to 2-3 years under the new arrangement, according to Guangdong Real Estate Industry Association chairman Wang Shao 1, it creates immediate cash flow pressures for developers. However, industry analysts view the policy as potentially beneficial in the long term by stimulating sales demand, stabilizing property prices, and mitigating the risk of unfinished developments that has undermined buyer confidence 1. The changes also include extending the maximum term for personal home mortgages from 30 years to 40 years 1, and prioritizing cash sales for newly allocated land 1. These measures reflect broader efforts to rebalance the property market between developer interests and consumer protection.
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