澳洲联邦银行近日发出警告，房价下跌的压力将持续到明年中期1。该行预计悉尼今年房价将下跌11%，墨尔本下跌10%；到2025年4月时，悉尼房价从高点的跌幅将达13%，墨尔本达12%1。
市场已呈现持续疲软态势。8月全国住宅价值连续第五个月下跌，平均房价中位数下降约4万澳元1。年初至今，悉尼房价已下跌6.7%，墨尔本下跌6.3%1。高利率、政府税收改革和可负担性危机共同打压了市场1。联邦银行预期澳洲央行将在11月前上调利率，随后从明年5月开始下调1。
建筑批准数据也显示增长乏力。7月建筑批准环比下跌3.6%，其中新房批准下跌4.2%，昆士兰州跌幅最大，达5.5%1。过去一年澳洲批准了近21万套房屋建设，但要实现十年建造120万套房屋的目标，每年需获批约25万套1。
Australia's Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest mortgage lender, has cautioned that property prices will continue to fall through to mid-2025.1 The bank projects Sydney house prices will drop 11 percent in 2024, with Melbourne experiencing a 10 percent decline.1 By April 2025, Sydney prices are expected to have fallen 13 percent from their peak, while Melbourne is forecast to decline 12 percent.1
The housing market has already shown signs of weakness, with national residential values declining for the fifth consecutive month in August, resulting in the median house price falling approximately 40,000 Australian dollars.1 Year-to-date, Sydney prices have already declined 6.7 percent, and Melbourne prices have dropped 6.3 percent.1 The downturn is being driven by elevated interest rates, government tax reforms, and ongoing affordability challenges across the market.1 The Commonwealth Bank anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates before November, followed by rate cuts beginning in May next year.1
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