俄罗斯民众和企业大规模转向现金交易，进一步加剧了国家的经济压力。自年初以来，俄罗斯流通现金激增1.56万亿卢布（约148亿英镑或200亿美元），这是除新冠疫情外同期最大的增幅 [1]。
多重因素推动了这一现象。乌克兰无人机的持续袭击导致克里姆林宫多次切断大范围移动网络，使民众因支付受阻和安全顾虑而转向现金 [1]。同时，俄罗斯政府的税务政策也在推高现金使用。政府将增值税从20%上调至22%，并降低了中小企业的纳税门槛，促使部分企业通过现金交易规避税收 [1]。这种趋势反映在提取数据中：5月份俄罗斯人从银行账户提取了5500亿卢布，其中2000亿卢布来自定期存款 [1]。
Sberbank首席财务官Taras Skvortsov警告称，企业通过"信封工资"等地下方式规避薪资税的迹象正在加重 [1]。尽管银行提供高利率存款产品，但出于对资金安全和避税的考量，民众仍倾向于持有现金，这直接削弱了政府的税收征管能力，加重了财政赤字压力。
这一转向现金的趋势反映出俄罗斯战时经济面临的严峻挑战。经济部已将2026年GDP增长预测下调至0.4%，为2022年以来的最弱增长预期 [1]。
Facing a combination of security threats and tax pressures, Russians are withdrawing cash from the financial system at an accelerating rate, straining an already fragile wartime economy. Since the start of the year, cash in circulation has surged by 1.56 trillion rubles—approximately $20 billion—marking the largest increase outside the COVID-19 pandemic period. [1]
The shift toward physical currency stems from multiple factors. Ukrainian drone attacks have repeatedly prompted the Kremlin to cut mobile networks across broad areas, disrupting digital payments and driving citizens to rely on cash out of both necessity and security concerns. [1] Simultaneously, the government has tightened tax policy, raising the value-added tax from 20 percent to 22 percent and lowering tax thresholds for small and medium-sized enterprises, incentivizing businesses to conduct transactions in cash to avoid taxation. [1]
In May alone, Russians withdrew 550 billion rubles from bank accounts, with 200 billion rubles drawn from term deposits. [1] Despite banks offering high-yield savings products, cash continues to accumulate outside the formal financial system as individuals and companies prioritize perceived safety and tax evasion over returns. [1]
The trend underscores deepening economic challenges. Sberbank's chief financial officer, Taras Skvortsov, has warned of serious signs that companies are circumventing payroll taxes through informal "envelope wages" arrangements. [1] The Ministry of Economic Development has downgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.4 percent, the weakest projection since 2022. [1] The persistent cash hoarding complicates tax collection efforts and exacerbates fiscal pressures as the economy struggles under wartime conditions.