西澳州Secret Harbour选区将于8月29日举行州议会补选，此次补选由劳工党部长Paul Papalia的辞职而触发1。Papalia自2007年以来一直代表该选区1。
长期以来，Secret Harbour选区是劳工党的稳固阵地，两党优先票均值约为60%1。然而分析表明，One Nation党在该选区可能实现选举冷门1。该党将目标瞄准这一地区，原因是当地存在高度的经济焦虑和较低的族裔多样性1。在2025年州选举中，劳工党在该选区的初选票为46.6%，反对票达28.5%，而One Nation则获得8.4%的初选票1。西澳州Premier Roger Cook表示，劳工党"绝对"可能无法保留该选区1。
本次补选吸引了16名候选人参选1，劳工党已在本地竞选中投入30万澳元1。这场地方选举因其可能对澳大利亚整体政治格局带来的影响而受到关注1。
A state by-election in Western Australia's Secret Harbour electorate on August 29 will test whether One Nation can achieve an upset in a traditionally Labor stronghold 1. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labor minister Paul Papalia, who has held the seat since 2007 1.
Although Labor has historically dominated Secret Harbour with an average primary vote share of around 60% between the major parties, the electorate's characteristics—marked by high economic anxiety and low ethnic diversity—have prompted political analysts to suggest One Nation could mount a credible challenge 1. In the 2025 state election held in the same electorate, Labor's primary vote fell to 46.6% while One Nation received 8.4%, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment 1. The Liberals' primary vote swung by 9.8% during that election 1. Premier Roger Cook acknowledged that Labor is "absolutely" at risk of losing the seat 1.
The by-election has attracted 16 candidates, compared to seven in the 2025 state election 1. Labor has committed approximately $300,000 to its local campaign 1.
评论
还没有评论，欢迎留下第一条。