维多利亚州民调显示联盟党领先工党

澳大利亚维多利亚州将于2025年11月28日举行州议会选举1。距离投票日约三个月时，最新民调普遍显示联盟党对工党保持领先优势1。根据多份民调数据，联盟党在两党偏好分配后的领先幅度从51-49到57-43不等1。维多利亚州下议院共有88个席位1。

工党领导层的更换未能扭转选情。本·卡罗尔于2025年7月28日接替贾辛塔·艾伦成为工党领袖和州总理1。虽然卡罗尔的净支持率为-4，远优于艾伦的-361，但这一领导人变化并未改善工党的整体投票意向1。与此同时，联盟党领袖杰西·威尔逊的净支持率达到+18，创历史新高，这正在帮助联盟党巩固选情优势1。在Resolve民调（2025年8月9-15日，样本1000人）中，联盟党支持率为27%，工党为25%，一国党为23%，绿党为12%，独立人士为7%1。工党已统治维多利亚州过去12年，并在过去27年中统治23年1。

Victoria will hold a state election on November 28, 2025, approximately three months away 1. Since Ben Carroll assumed the role of Labor leader and state premier on July 28, replacing Jacinta Allan, five published polls have consistently shown the Coalition ahead of Labor across two-party preferred measures, with leads ranging from narrow margins to substantial ones 1. The most recent surveys indicate Coalition support at between 51 and 57 percent against Labor's 43 to 49 percent in two-party preferred allocations 1.

Carroll's personal approval ratings have improved markedly compared to his predecessor, with a net approval of minus 4 in Resolve polling, a significant improvement from Allan's minus 36 1. However, this improvement in leadership perception has not yet translated into increased voting intention for Labor 1. Meanwhile, Coalition leader Jesse Wilson enjoys a net approval rating of plus 18, described as a historic high, bolstering the Coalition's electoral position 1. A Resolve poll conducted from August 9 to 15 with 1,000 respondents showed the Coalition at 27 percent primary support, Labor at 25 percent, One Nation at 23 percent, the Greens at 12 percent, and independents at 7 percent 1. The state election will determine control of Victoria's lower house, which comprises 88 seats 1. Labor has governed Victoria for the past 12 years and has held power for 23 of the past 27 years 1.