英国沃里克大学物理学教授Sandra Chapman及其研究团队发现了太阳11年活动周期中的一个关键转折点，在该阶段极端空间天气会突然停止[1]。通过测量这一阶段的黑子数量，科学家能够提前6至7年预测下一个太阳活动周期的强度[1]。
研究团队已将这一方法应用于第26个太阳周期的预测，初步预测该周期属于中等强度，黑子数约为100至120个[1]。根据研究发现，当极端空间天气在约15度太阳纬度以下停止时，这个"关闭点"便成为了可识别的预测信号[1]。
Researchers at the University of Warwick have identified a new turning point in the sun's 11-year activity cycle that could enable scientists to forecast the intensity of future solar cycles with unprecedented lead time.[1] Led by physics professor Sandra Chapman, the team discovered that extreme space weather abruptly ceases at a specific stage during each cycle, marked by a critical threshold of sunspot activity.[1] By measuring the number of sunspots at this "switch-off" point, researchers can predict the strength of the subsequent solar cycle approximately 6 to 7 years in advance.[1]
The breakthrough has already been applied to forecast Solar Cycle 26, with initial predictions suggesting moderate intensity characterized by approximately 100 to 120 sunspots.[1] The method identifies the cutoff point when extreme space weather stops occurring below roughly 15 degrees of solar latitude, providing scientists with a clearer window for anticipating solar storms and geomagnetic disruptions.[1] This enhanced predictive capability comes at a significant moment in solar research, particularly given that the United Kingdom experienced its most intense geomagnetic storm in over two decades in May 2024.[1]