根据英国运输部的公开预测分析，希思罗机场第三跑道扩建项目将对英国其他地区的就业造成显著负面影响[1]。研究表明，伯明翰机场预计每年将失去750万乘客，导致约9500个就业机会流失[1]。到2050年，预计有15200个地区航空业岗位和6400个伦敦东南部机场岗位转向希思罗[1]。
经济收益远低于政府预期[1]。报告显示，该扩建项目年均GDP增长仅为0.05%[1]，而大部分收益将集中在伦敦和英格兰东南部地区[1]。新经济基金会指出，扩建实质上是将就业和投资从全国各地转移至伦敦和东南部[1]。
希思罗机场首席执行官对此持不同看法，声称扩建将创造超过60000个本地就业机会，贸易额达1500亿英镑[1]。第三跑道估计耗资330亿英镑，计划于2035年竣工[1]。
A new economic analysis reveals that Heathrow Airport's proposed third runway expansion would result in significant job losses across other regions of the United Kingdom rather than generating net employment gains [1]. According to UK Department of Transport forecasts, the West Midlands region would lose approximately 9,500 aviation-related positions, while Birmingham Airport alone faces a projected decline of 7.5 million passengers annually [1].
The report estimates that by 2050, roughly 15,200 regional aviation jobs and 6,400 airport positions in London's southeast would be redirected to Heathrow [1]. The New Economics Foundation characterizes the expansion as essentially transferring employment and investment from across the nation to London and the southeast [1]. The overall economic benefit proves far more modest than government projections, with the analysis showing annual GDP growth of just 0.05% [1]. The third runway project, estimated to cost £33 billion and scheduled for completion by 2035, has drawn scrutiny regarding its broader economic rationale [1].
Heathrow's chief executive counters that the expansion would create more than 60,000 local jobs and generate £150 billion in trade [1]. However, the discrepancy between these claims and official forecasts raises questions about the project's value proposition for the wider economy, particularly as Prime Minister Burnham's political support for the scheme remains uncertain [1].