欧洲中央银行管理委员会于2026年7月23日决定保持三大关键利率不变。[1]ECB主席克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示，虽然中东冲突持续造成能源价格波动和通胀压力，但考虑到6月以来的多重因素，央行将采取数据依赖型的逐次会议决策方式，在9月前密切监测二阶效应和经济数据。[1]
通胀形势方面，欧元区6月通胀率为2.8%，低于5月的3.2%。[1]能源价格通胀从5月的10.8%降至6月的8.5%。[1]然而，6月以色列-伊朗停火后油价曾显著下跌，但随后再度上升，且胡塞武装对沙特船只的威胁可能进一步推高油价。[1]就业市场保持韧性，5月失业率为6.2%，接近历史低点。[1]
关于物价持续上升的传导机制，拉加德表示不存在二阶效应迹象。[1]ECB将在9月前接收两份月度通胀指标、二季度GDP数据、两份消费预期指数、一份员工薪酬指数和两份PMI数据。[1]
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided to maintain its three key interest rates unchanged on July 23, 2026.[1] ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that while the Middle East conflict continues to create energy price fluctuations and inflationary pressures, the central bank will adopt a data-dependent approach, making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis and closely monitoring second-round effects and economic developments through September.[1]
Eurozone inflation declined to 2.8 percent in June from 3.2 percent in May, with energy price inflation falling from 10.8 percent to 8.5 percent over the same period.[1] The unemployment rate stood at 6.2 percent in May, approaching historic lows.[1] Oil prices experienced significant volatility during the period, initially dropping following a Memorandum of Understanding and an Israeli-Iranian ceasefire in June, before rising again subsequently.[1] Lagarde stated that the ECB is "not seeing" signs of second-round effects taking hold.[1] Ahead of September, the ECB will receive two monthly inflation indicators, second-quarter GDP data, two consumer sentiment indices, one compensation index, and two PMI reports to inform its assessment.[1]