中共軍機對台灣周邊空域的騷擾活動明顯下降。[1]2026年上半年共軍戰機出動架次為1334架，較去年同期減少一半以上，創造了3年來的最低水平。[1]相比之下，2025年共軍全年出動架次達到5461架，其中越過中線的架次最高達3782架。[1]今年上半年共有38天未發現共軍飛機活動，遠高於去年同期的6天。[1]
香港南華早報分析指出，這一變化源於多重因素共同作用。[1]美中關係改善是關鍵因素，習近平與川普北京峰會達成戰略穩定協議，而美國國家情報總監辦公室3月報告表示中國領導人目前沒有計劃在2027年入侵台灣。[1]同時，北京與台北的非官方接觸增加，習近平與國民黨主席鄭麗文4月舉行首次會談，北京並公布了10項促進兩岸經濟交流的措施。[1]此外，共軍的反腐和戰略調整亦是重要原因。[1]雖然大規模演習有所減少，但中國大陸官方執法船只數量大幅增加，今年上半年達252艘，較去年下半年增加了89%。[1]
The number of Chinese military aircraft operating around Taiwan has declined significantly in the first half of 2026, with reported sorties totaling 1,334 aircraft, representing a more than 50 percent decrease compared to the same period last year and marking the lowest level in three years.[1] According to analysis by the South China Morning Post, this reduction stems from multiple factors, including improved U.S.-China relations, a strategic stability agreement reached during Xi Jinping's Beijing summit with Trump, increased unofficial contacts between Beijing and Taipei, and China's military anti-corruption efforts and strategic readjustment.[1]
The decline in military activity extends beyond aircraft operations. From January to June 2026, there were 38 days without any detected Chinese military aircraft presence in the region, substantially higher than the six days recorded during the first half of the previous year.[1] Simultaneously, China has scaled back large-scale military exercises around Taiwan while significantly expanding its coast guard patrol operations, with official enforcement vessels numbering 252 in the first half of this year—an 89 percent increase from the July-December period of the prior year.[1] Additionally, the U.S. National Counterintelligence and Security Center reported in March that Chinese leadership currently has no plans to invade Taiwan in 2027,[1] and Beijing has initiated dialogue with Taipei, including a first-ever meeting in April between Xi Jinping and Kuomintang Chair Cheng Li-wen, as well as the announcement of ten measures to promote cross-strait economic exchange.[1]