一位开发者创建了一个交互式可视化工具，用于模拟荷尔木兹海峡关闭对全球油气贸易的冲击，该项目源自哥伦比亚大学供应链课程的教学工作[1]。
这一模型采用金融网络的Eisenberg-Noe机制，将各国视为通过双边贸易相互连接的油气消费者[1]。工具利用真实的联合国贸易统计数据（UN Comtrade），通过模拟关键贸易节点阻断的方式观察危机如何在全球贸易网络中扩散[1]。
该可视化工具由约600行Flask代码和JavaScript前端组成[1]。模型的一项发现表明，法国虽然不直接从荷尔木兹海峡获得石油，但因其他国家增加安全库存导致油价上升，其能源储备反而会更快枯竭[1]。相关研究论文已发布在arXiv上[1]。
A developer has built an interactive visualization tool that models the global impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz on oil and gas trade, drawing from a supply chain course project at Columbia University [1]. The tool employs the Eisenberg-Noe financial network mechanism to represent countries as oil and gas consumers connected through bilateral trade relationships, simulating how disruptions at critical bottleneck nodes propagate through the global trade network [1].
The model relies on real trade data from UN Comtrade and is constructed using 600 lines of Flask code with a JavaScript frontend [1]. One key finding demonstrates an counterintuitive outcome: France, despite having no direct petroleum imports through the Strait of Hormuz, faces faster depletion of its reserves in the simulation because rising oil prices caused by other nations increasing safety stocks force prices higher globally [1].
The underlying research is detailed in an academic paper available at https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.17491 [1].